Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 4.696791 5.568012 6.533263 7.678818 8.997915 10.465770 12.219232
2025-05-11 3.318242 4.467282 5.883555 7.742432 10.100927 12.975044 16.721700
2025-05-18 2.363372 3.560823 5.180405 7.496030 10.680049 14.856538 20.691575
2025-05-25 1.711566 2.856465 4.539270 7.132677 10.953433 16.285489 24.174748
2025-06-01 1.331724 2.435571 4.181689 7.053354 11.539944 18.134565 28.365014
2025-06-08 1.055440 2.102614 3.875236 6.967555 12.059011 19.892454 32.555857
2025-06-15 0.922904 1.979521 3.874691 7.348944 13.323683 22.866898 38.818934
2025-06-22 0.769853 1.779339 3.697926 7.391660 14.019195 24.994562 43.936676
2025-06-29 0.642943 1.598124 3.517620 7.389194 14.618256 26.998726 49.005211
2025-07-06 0.538130 1.436333 3.341533 7.359278 15.149496 28.917606 54.070814
2025-07-13 0.509147 1.437389 3.491066 7.973350 16.918333 33.109079 63.305278
2025-07-20 0.454165 1.363031 3.467541 8.232820 18.037683 36.236466 70.919444
2025-07-27 0.407517 1.301238 3.467512 8.555223 19.343456 39.865629 79.807193
2025-08-03 0.346670 1.186042 3.325747 8.555396 20.011275 42.385470 86.918327
2025-08-10 0.280647 1.036138 3.070888 8.262457 20.036956 43.684588 91.875563
2025-08-17 0.222101 0.888555 2.789325 7.858412 19.769209 44.374859 95.719415
2025-08-24 0.186586 0.802164 2.649149 7.769207 20.174351 46.430296 102.338329
2025-08-31 0.156807 0.724612 2.516145 7.674791 20.551799 48.452362 109.028312
2025-09-07 0.146509 0.714843 2.576523 8.089638 22.155476 53.156175 121.417913
2025-09-14 0.127428 0.664191 2.503569 8.135999 22.883069 56.044946 130.282403
2025-09-21 0.109920 0.613056 2.417854 8.133270 23.488653 58.712754 138.862621
2025-09-28 0.094348 0.563754 2.326884 8.100696 24.014199 61.240863 147.311060
2025-10-05 0.093515 0.582238 2.468594 8.768721 26.393516 68.095333 165.407772